Table 2. Prediction of the heritability of liability (hL2) and proportion of sporadic cases in human complex diseases.
P(sporadic I) (%) | P(sporadic II) (%) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Disease | K (%) | λ1 | hL2 (%) | Sa | Theor.b | Simu.c | Theor.b | Simu.c |
Prostate cancer27 | 2.40 | 2.8 | 44 | 2 | 81 | 82 | 63 | 66 |
3 | 76 | 78 | 49 | 55 | ||||
Colon cancer27 | 1.50 | 5.1 | 64 | 2 | 79 | 80 | 64 | 67 |
3 | 73 | 76 | 51 | 58 | ||||
Breast cancer27 | 3.60 | 2.5 | 44 | 2 | 75 | 77 | 53 | 57 |
3 | 69 | 72 | 37 | 45 | ||||
Lung cancer27 | 1.70 | 6.1 | 76 | 2 | 72 | 74 | 55 | 61 |
3 | 65 | 69 | 41 | 51 | ||||
Stomach cancer27 | 1.00 | 6.0 | 63 | 2 | 83 | 84 | 71 | 74 |
3 | 78 | 80 | 60 | 65 | ||||
Bladder Cancer27 | 1.00 | 1.7 | 16 | 2 | 95 | 95 | 88 | 88 |
3 | 93 | 93 | 81 | 82 | ||||
Schizophrenia28, 29 | 1.00 | 8.6 | 80 | 2 | 76 | 78 | 63 | 67 |
3 | 70 | 74 | 51 | 59 | ||||
Schizophrenia22 | 0.40 | 9.0 | 63 | 2 | 90 | 90 | 83 | 85 |
3 | 86 | 88 | 76 | 79 | ||||
Bipolar disorder30 | 1.00 | 6.8 | 69 | 2 | 81 | 82 | 69 | 72 |
3 | 75 | 78 | 57 | 64 | ||||
Bipolar disorder22 | 0.45 | 7.9 | 60 | 2 | 90 | 90 | 83 | 84 |
3 | 87 | 88 | 76 | 79 | ||||
Unipolar disorder31 | 10.0 | 1.7 | 39 | 2 | 60 | 57 | 31 | 25 |
3 | 52 | 47 | 18 | 11 | ||||
Type I diabetes32 | 0.54 | 13.7 | 86 | 2 | 81 | 79 | 73 | 69 |
3 | 77 | 73 | 66 | 59 | ||||
Type II diabetes33 | 3.00 | 3.5 | 60 | 2 | 72 | 73 | 50 | 55 |
3 | 64 | 68 | 35 | 44 | ||||
Crohn's disease1 | 0.10 | 26 | 76 | 2 | 92 | 93 | 89 | 90 |
3 | 90 | 91 | 85 | 87 | ||||
Asthma34 | 2.00 | 2.6 | 38 | 2 | 85 | 86 | 70 | 72 |
3 | 81 | 82 | 57 | 62 | ||||
Coronary artery disease35 | 5.60 | 3.2 | 72 | 2 | 55 | 59 | 29 | 38 |
3 | 45 | 53 | 15 | 26 | ||||
Systemic lupus erythematosus36 | 0.03 | 30 | 65 | 2 | 97 | 97 | 96 | 96 |
3 | 96 | 96 | 95 | 95 | ||||
Rheumatoid arthritis16 | 0.75 | 8.0 | 70 | 2 | 83 | 84 | 73 | 75 |
3 | 78 | 80 | 62 | 68 |
The disease prevalence (K) and first-degree recurrence risk (λ1) are obtained from the literature and may include averaging over sexes. hL2 is calculated from its analytical relationship with K and λ1 (Appendix).
S is the mean family size per couple.
Theor. represents the predictions of P(sporadic) by analytical approximation.
Simu. represents the predictions of P(sporadic) by simulation.