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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2011 May 23.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet Neurol. 2009 Oct 29;8(12):1111–1119. doi: 10.1016/S1474-4422(09)70275-3

Figure 3. ROC curves for models predicting a diagnosis of MS or CIS. (a) Derivation samples.

Figure 3

Figure 3

We plot the results for three separate models predicting a diagnosis of MS: “GRS w/o HLA DRB1” that includes 15 susceptibility loci and excludes the HLA DRB1*1501 allele (blue), “GRS w/HLA DRB1” that includes 15 susceptibility loci and the HLA DRB1*1501 allele (red), “GRS w/HLA DRB1+ female” that includes 15 susceptibility loci, the HLA DRB1*1501 allele, and gender (green). (b) TT samples. We repeat the analysis in (a) using the TT validation samples. The same presentation scheme is used. (c) NHS/NHS II samples. The analysis method is the same in the NHS/NHS II validation samples. These subjects are all women. The third model that is plotted (green line) includes all 15 susceptibility loci, the HLA DRB1*1501 allele, as well as terms for smoking and EBV titers.