Figure 3. ROC curves for models predicting a diagnosis of MS or CIS. (a) Derivation samples.
We plot the results for three separate models predicting a diagnosis of MS: “GRS w/o HLA DRB1” that includes 15 susceptibility loci and excludes the HLA DRB1*1501 allele (blue), “GRS w/HLA DRB1” that includes 15 susceptibility loci and the HLA DRB1*1501 allele (red), “GRS w/HLA DRB1+ female” that includes 15 susceptibility loci, the HLA DRB1*1501 allele, and gender (green). (b) TT samples. We repeat the analysis in (a) using the TT validation samples. The same presentation scheme is used. (c) NHS/NHS II samples. The analysis method is the same in the NHS/NHS II validation samples. These subjects are all women. The third model that is plotted (green line) includes all 15 susceptibility loci, the HLA DRB1*1501 allele, as well as terms for smoking and EBV titers.