Table 2.
Parameter ranges that result in accurate reproduction of model outcomes
| Parameter | Units | Symbol | Best fit value | Good fit | Average fit | ||
| Lower limit | Upper limit | Lower limit | Upper limit | ||||
| Cell-associated HSV infectivity | DNA copy days/cell (viruses needed per day to infect one adjacent cell) | βi | 5.4e−8 (111) | 4.86e−8 (123) | 7.83e−8 (76) | 3.78e−8 (158) | 1.32e−7 (45) |
| Cell-free HSV infectivity | DNA copy days/cell (viruses needed per day to initiate one new ulcer) | βe | 2.65e−11 (2.26e5) | 1.73e−11 (3.46e5) | 2.78e−11 (2.15e5) | 3.98e−12 (1.50e6) | 5.04e−11 (1.19e5) |
| Epidermal HSV replication rate | HSV DNA copies per cell per day | p | 1.03e5 | 7.21e4 | 1.7e5 | 5.15e4 | 1.96e5 |
| Neuronal release rate | HSV DNA copies per day per genital tract | ϕ | 82 | 45 | 90 | 41 | 123 |
| Free-viral decay rate | Per day (half-life, hours) | c | 8.8 (1.9) | 7.0 (2.4) | 9.7 (1.7) | 6.2 (2.7) | 12.3 (1.4) |
| Maximal CD8+ T-cell expansion rate | Per day | θ | 2.84 | 1.85 | 3.27 | 1.85 | 5.25 |
| CD8+ T-cell decay rate | Per day (half-life, days) | δ | 1.47e−3 (471) | 1.12e−3 (619) | 1.69e−3 (409) | 6.64e−4 (1040) | 2.21e−3 (314) |
| CD8+ T-cell local recognition | Infected cells at which θ is half maximal | r | 42 | 30 | 47 | 4 | 74 |
| CD8+ regional codependence | 0 = no codependence, 1 =full codependence | ρ | 0.69 | 0.59 | 0.86 | 0.38 | 0.86 |
| Viral production lag | Days | ε | 0.96 | 0.53 | 1.1 | 0.34 | 1.1 |