. 2013 Apr 16;2:e00288. doi: 10.7554/eLife.00288

Table 6.

Model fit to Cohort E

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00288.041

Summary measure	Summed criteria scores								Best fitting score	AIC
Summary measure	Shedding frequency	Episode duration	First positive swab	Last positive swab	Peak positive swab	Median expansion	Median decay	Episode frequency	Best fitting score	AIC
Model 1	2.13	5.59	0.05	0.08	0.24	0.07	0.43	0.01	8.61	−50
Model 2	1.26	8.33	0.38	0.34	0.22	0.04	0.09	0.03	10.69	−41
Model 3	0.25	3.75	0.31	0.22	0.61	0.05	0.50	0.22	5.92	−62
Model 4 solved for 10 parameters	0.25	0.13	0.29	0.15	0.09	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.96	−139
Model 4 solved for 5 parameters	0.39	0.32	0.44	0.21	0.09	0.04	0	0.18	1.67	−125

Summed criteria scores measure the degree of fit for each model according the eight individual shedding episode features using a weighted sum of squares. Model 4 is the spatial model. Models 1–3 are described in the ‘Methods’. Best fitting score is a sum of all summed criteria scores for a particular model with lower scores indicating better fit. AIC: Akaike information criteria with lower scores indicating better fit.