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. 2013 Oct 17;9(10):e1003256. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003256

Table 4. Performance of Google Flu Trends (GFT) relative to public health influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance at the national (United States), regional (Mid-Atlantic States) and local (New York City) levels for specific epidemic and pandemic seasons.

Time Period and Geographic Location Original GFT model Updated GFT model
R2 R2 ('+/− week lag, max R2)
National, United States
Influenza seasons 2003–2009 (prior to 2009 pandemic) 0.88 0.92
2009 pandemic A/H1N1 early wave 0.91 0.84
2009/2010 pandemic A/H1N1 season NA 0.98
2010/2011 season NA 0.95
2011/2012 season NA 0.88
2012/2013 season NA 0.90
Regional, Mid-Atlantic States
Influenza seasons 2003–2009 (prior to 2009 pandemic) 0.75 0.77
2009 pandemic A/H1N1 early wave 0.51 0.82
2009/2010 pandemic A/H1N1 season NA 0.92
2010/2011 season NA 0.83
2011/2012 season NA 0.37
2012/2013 season NA 0.86
Local, New York City
Influenza seasons 2003–2009 (prior to 2009 pandemic) 0.87 0.84
2009 pandemic A/H1N1 early wave 0.78 0.88
2009/2010 pandemic A/H1N1 season NA 0.51 (−3 wks, 0.89)
2010/2011 season NA 0.74 (+1 wk, 0.80)
2011/2012 season NA 0.80
2012/2013 season NA 0.94