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. 2004 Sep 23;232(1):71–81. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.07.026

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Predicting outbreaks and epidemics. The left graph illustrates the average number of people infected in a small outbreak, 〈s〉, when T is below the epidemic threshold. The right graph illustrates S, the probability that an epidemic occurs when T is above the epidemic threshold. S also equals the expected fraction of the population infected during an epidemic, should one occur. The vertical lines correspond to recent estimates of R0 for SARS pre-intervention (right) and post-intervention (left) (Chowell and Fenimore, 2003a, Chowell and Hyman, 2003b; Lipsitch et al., 2003; Riley et al., 2003). Note that we chose the parameters for the power law and Poisson networks so that for any value of T, all three networks share the same R0. Simulation values are based on 2571 simulated epidemics, each starting with a unique individual in the network.