Table 5. Proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission (p) and reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 estimated using generation interval or serial interval and assuming an incubation period with a mean of 5.2 and a SD of 2.8 days, Singapore, 21 January–26 February 2020; Tianjin, China, 14 January–27 February 2020.
| Dataset | Scenario | Interval | Estimate (95% credible interval) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| p | R | |||
| Singaporea | Baselineb | GI | 0.48 (0.32–0.67) | 1.27 (1.19–1.36) |
| SI | NAc | 1.25 (1.17–1.34) | ||
| Allowing for all possible negative SI | GI | 0.66 (0.45–0.84) | 1.19 (1.10–1.28) | |
| SI | NAc | 1.17 (1.08–1.26) | ||
| Tianjin (China)d | Baseline | GI | 0.62 (0.50–0.76) | 1.59 (1.42–1.78) |
| SI | NAc | 1.41 (1.26–1.58) | ||
| Allowing for all possible negative SI | GI | 0.77 (0.65–0.87) | 1.32 (1.18–1.51) | |
| SI | NAc | 1.17 (1.05–1.34) | ||
COVID-19: coronavirus disease; GI: generation interval; NA: not applicable; SI: serial interval.
a Source: Ministry of Health (https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/, as at 26 February).
b Baseline is the scenario in which missing serial intervals are only allowed to be positive.
c Not applicable as the generation interval estimate is used for calculation the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission.
d Source: Tianjin Municipal Health Commission (http://www.tjbd.gov.cn/zjbd/gsgg/, as at 27 February).